In current conditions, virtually all financial transactions in the market spekulyativny by its nature, and there is nothing abnormal, much less criminal. One of the most striking indicator of globalization of markets in favor of the daily amount of their foreign exchange transactions. It rose from 206 billion dollars in 1986 to 967 billion in 1992, only 10 major financial centers.
According to IMF estimates, in general, it exceeds 1 trillion dollars a day, and on some days the volume of transactions reaching 3 trillion. Suffice it to say that the gold reserves of all developed countries was in 1992, the total 555.2 billion dollars, that more than 2 times less than the daily volume of transactions in the market.
By some estimates, the volume of currency transactions in the 40 times the daily volume of foreign trade transactions. Consequently, these operations in the vast majority of cases not caused by a commercial necessity, but for financial reasons. A financial transaction is always a time and is prompted by the fact that money is looking for a profitable use.
The world monetary system, operating now develops in people who commit monetary operations, the so-called “spekulyantskoy psychology.” In a world where exchange rates deviate in one direction or another for a few percentage points every week, where currencies are considered to be sustainable, may lose in the next few months, 20-30% of its value, it is clear that the fund manager, in an effort to compensate for the inevitable loss, should to resort to speculation.
A reasonable holder of dollars, for example, to quickly get rid of dollars and exchange them for German marks, whenever the expected fall in the dollar against the mark more than the difference between income from short-term U.S. securities and income from the German securities.
If, say, in the coming months is expected to fall in the dollar against the mark by 6%, while income from U.S. bonds more than 6% higher than the income from short-term German bonds, a speculator might prefer to retain the U.S.. If the gap in interest rates less than expected fall in, it begins “flight from the dollar.”
Who are these speculators? The analysis shows that the main speculators acting in the market, are not ironic, especially institutional investors. Among them there are, in the first official state institutions and, secondly, private financial and other institutions. Thus, according to the report, “Force 10”, state investors in Europe and Japan hold about 20% of its assets in foreign securities (for the U.S. the figure is only 7.5%).
However, the main feature of 1980 was the increasing international activity of private financial institutions – pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, trusts, etc. The globalization of world financial markets is an objective process, reflecting an improvement in world economic relations. It promotes more efficient allocation of financial resources.